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Footwear: Why Size Availability Decides Everything

Footwear merchandise planning has to serve the size a customer needs, not merely keep the style in stock. Core Plus supports size-led allocation and replenishment. A pair in a slow size cannot fulfil demand for a different fit, even when the total quantity makes the style look comfortably covered.

A young footwear planner reviewing an unbranded trainer size run and shoe boxes.
Editorial illustration of the retail planning decision.

THE MERCHMIX DECISION / Core Plus

Thirty pairs do not mean the right size is available.

Keep each proposed pair attached to its size, source and useful arrival.

Independent worked retail example. Quantities are planning assumptions, with financial amounts shown in US dollars. Proposed changes remain subject to review.

merchmix.Core Plus / commercial review
Establish the basisCurrent assumptions

Thirty pairs do not mean the right size is available.

One style / four separate size opportunitiesThe total cannot substitute a different fit for the customer.
Size 612pairs held
Size 72pairs held
Size 83pairs held
Size 913pairs held
One-week size requirements18 pairs
Covered by matching held9 pairs
Requirement coverage50%
Matching sourceBeforeRetained if accepted
Size seven10Proposal not applied
Size eight12Proposal not applied
Nine-pair size-specific proposal / not executedThirty pairs hide two shallow sizes

For a one-week target the store becomes 39 pairs and the source thirteen, still 52 owned pairs. Matching sizes, source reserves and usable arrival still need acceptance.

Read the held size run

The total conceals shallow seven and eight positions.

THE KEY IDEA

Keep each proposed pair attached to its size, source and useful arrival.

A style can have stock and still miss the customer

Footwear turns one style into several separate service opportunities. A strong total can sit in the wrong sizes, while a customer requiring a particular fit cannot substitute another size safely or comfortably. Aggregate weeks of cover therefore need a size-level explanation before they guide the next refill.

Core Plus supports size curves, store quantities and replenishment context. This article goes beyond setting a curve: it examines the usable depth at the specific size and arrival window. A better curve for the next buy does not itself solve a current local size gap.

Planning and product referencesMerchmix Core Plus: product scope

Read a small size run in pairs

The independent example has sizes six, seven, eight and nine holding twelve, two, three and thirteen pairs respectively, thirty in total. Assumed weekly demand is two, six, eight and two pairs, eighteen overall. The aggregate is roughly 1.7 weeks of stock.

Size six has six weeks of cover and size nine 6.5 weeks. Size seven has about 0.3 and size eight about 0.4. These are forward assumptions, not observed lost sales or a promise that every size sells at a constant rate. The network total does not describe a complete customer-facing size run.

Define what a useful receipt needs to do

For this comparison, the stock snapshot is taken at the start of the one-week selling window, and any proposed receipt must be usable at that same point. For a one-week target at the destination, size seven needs four additional pairs and size eight five. Together the proposed nine pairs bring those sizes to six and eight, matching their assumed weekly demand. Sizes six and nine do not need more for that specific target.

The store would then hold 39 pairs overall. That larger total is useful only because the added depth matches the constrained sizes. A generic nine-pair assorted pack could spend the same movement effort without creating the same local service opportunity. Keep the size list attached to the quantity.

A demand-weighted requirement check adds a second perspective. For the stated one-week targets, the current run can cover two, two, three and two pairs by size, nine of eighteen required pairs, or 50%. Extra sixes and nines do not fill the other size requirements. The matching proposal covers all eighteen of those assumed requirements; this is quantity coverage, not a measured probability of customer service or a sales conversion rate.

THE FIGURES BEHIND THE DECISION

Thirty pairs do not mean the right size is available. Keep each proposed pair attached to its size, source and useful arrival.
SizeHeldWeekly demandProposed addition
6122None needed
7264
8385
9132None needed

Store 30 + proposed 9 = 39. Source 22 less 9 = 13. Combined ownership remains 52 pairs.

Check the source in the same sizes

Assume the distribution centre has ten usable pairs in size seven and twelve in size eight before the proposal. Moving four and five would retain six and seven respectively at that source. Its twenty-two pairs become thirteen; store thirty becomes 39; combined ownership remains 52.

Those retained quantities still need assessment against other stores and the next receipt. The illustration does not authorise taking stock already reserved elsewhere. Core Plus supports source, size and destination review; a calculated target is not permission to ignore the distribution centre’s reserve or another location’s accepted allocation.

THE PLANNING REFERENCERead the size-curve guide

Let lead time change the service question

The nine-pair proposal addresses one week of expected demand after a timely arrival. If the usable arrival moves beyond that window, its projected benefit cannot be credited to the earlier period. A transfer arriving too late might still be useful later, but it needs a later demand and stock basis.

For a separate two-week destination target with no intervening intake, size seven would need ten pairs and size eight thirteen. The stated source can supply ten in seven but only twelve in eight before reserves. The longer target is therefore not fully feasible from that source, even before competing commitments.

This makes the footwear decision more than a size-curve exercise. A one-week response is arithmetically feasible from the stated matching source before reserves; the two-week target is not. Keep that horizon boundary attached to any service claim. Filling every box on a size chart by counting assorted pairs would hide the unfilled size-eight requirement.

Use constrained selling carefully when revising the curve

Low sales from a nearly empty size can understate customer demand. Review comparable available periods and keep any estimated missed demand separate from till transactions. The article’s six and eight weekly demands are already planning assumptions, not values proved by the two and three pairs currently held.

Core Plus connects the current refill question to the size context. The next buying curve may need adjustment too, but that is a different decision with a different horizon. Avoid using a temporary transfer as evidence that the whole future size curve has been validated.

SignalMerchmix workspaceDecision to review
Read the held size runCore Plus / decision reviewThe total conceals shallow seven and eight positions.
Compare size demandCore Plus / decision reviewWeekly demand is two, six, eight and two.
Build the matching proposalCore Plus / decision reviewFour sevens and five eights bring the constrained sizes to one week.

Review service where the customer meets the size

The useful follow-up is whether the matching pairs became usable in time and whether the retained source position remained adequate. Actual sales, availability and subsequent receipts can test the assumptions. A larger style total alone cannot establish that the footwear customer was better served.

Merchmix Core Plus supports the movement from a style-level warning to a size-specific proposal. Here the nine-pair response remains conditional on timing, reserves and approval. It does not claim nine recovered sales, and it does not move stock simply because the arithmetic balances.

BEFORE THE NEXT DECISION

  • Evidence owner

    Confirm scope, timestamps and the independent assumptions.

  • Commercial owner

    Check the customer opportunity, cost and competing commitments.

  • Decision owner

    Record the accepted response and the next review point.

Common questions

Why is total cover misleading?

Thirty pairs include substantial depth in six and nine while seven and eight remain shallow.

What makes up the nine-pair proposal?

Four pairs in size seven and five in size eight.

Does the proposal create inventory?

No. Store and stated source still total 52 pairs.

Can the same source support two full weeks?

Not fully: size eight needs thirteen additional pairs but the source holds twelve before reserves.

Are six and eight weekly sales observed losses?

No. They are forward demand assumptions for the worked example.

core plus

The total conceals shallow seven and eight positions.

Explore

Continue reading: Estimating unserved demand

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