New Products With No History: Where the First Forecast Comes From

Define the product before borrowing another product’s demand

Forge’s Research workspace keeps reference evidence and design observations alongside the collection brief. Design boards organise the proposed direction, while material records provide context such as composition and weight. Those details help the planner define what is genuinely comparable; a well-presented concept or approved design is not evidence of future demand.

The worked new concept is a Chalk cotton overshirt, compared with an Indigo reference overshirt. Both are example products, consistent with the cream-and-blue comparison in the article image. Review their customer use, construction, material, price context and launch exposure before applying a trading rate from one to the other.

Forecasting research treats analogy and structured judgement as appropriate when own-product history is absent. The forecast estimates demand; the financial target expresses an ambition. Forge supplies product-development context, while the planner must still choose the trading evidence and explain the first demand assumption.

Choose the analogue for explainable reasons

Compare product function, intended customer, material, price, season, store exposure and availability. A reference saved in Forge can explain a design direction without supplying a usable sales history. Obtain the historical quantities from the relevant trading records and confirm their scope; a comparable style that sold out immediately has constrained sales evidence.

Core supports the new range and MFP/WSSI assumptions. The planner’s analogue review is a method, not a claim that Forge automatically finds the right comparable, predicts its demand or transfers an accepted forecast into Core. Record why the product reference and the historical trading scope belong together before scaling the rate.

Scale the reference before applying judgement

The reference style sold 160 units in two weeks across eight stores, or ten units per store per week. Applying that rate to six stores gives a 120-unit two-week starting estimate. The example assumes comparable availability for the reference period.

A 0.9 price-response factor and 0.8 seasonal factor give 86.4 units, rounded to ninety as the explicit initial planning estimate. These factors are judgemental assumptions, not measured elasticities. Keep the unrounded result visible so the owner can explain both the adjustment and the rounding.

Separate the first forecast from the opening quantity

An opening quantity can include presentation or retained-cover needs beyond the first two-week forecast. In this example 150 units become usable at launch. That is a supply choice, not evidence that demand is 150, and it must still fit the budget and size plan.

Core keeps quantity and demand assumptions distinguishable, and Core Plus supports the opening allocation and later refill review. Forge’s concept, material or design approval answers a product-development question; it does not approve the buying budget, create a forecast or confirm stock receipt. Each decision needs its own accepted basis and owner.

Use early sales to revise the next window

In the worked example, the new product then records 72 sales over two completed weeks across six stores, giving six per store per week. With no other movements, 78 of the opening 150 remain. A next two-week baseline at that rate is 72 units, rather than another ninety copied from launch. These are independent trading assumptions for the worked example, not measured results for a Merchmix customer.

If the chosen closing target is thirty, incremental need is 72 plus thirty minus 78: 24 units. That proposed top-up depends on usable sizes and arrival within the relevant window. The new rate should also be checked for launch effects, exposure and temporary promotion before being extended.

Keep uncertainty visible after the first revision

Two weeks of selling can improve the evidence without establishing a stable pattern. Changes to the proposed material, fit or customer role may also weaken the original analogue. Keep the product definition reviewed in Forge aligned with the style and scope used for planning; reassess the reference when a material product assumption changes.

Core Plus supports demand-curve refill among its configured models. That capability does not make the assumed six-unit rate a guaranteed future outcome. Retain the source period, availability and target so an allocation owner can inspect why the next quantity changed.

A next-window sensitivity can make the uncertainty actionable. Four units per store per week would imply 48 sales across six stores and two weeks, while eight would imply 96. With 78 held and a thirty-unit closing target, the slower case needs no extra stock and the faster case needs 48. The 24-unit baseline proposal sits between these assumptions.

Give the first forecast an expiry date

The first estimate is useful when it helps the business place a controlled opening quantity and learn promptly. Set its review point before a repeat becomes too late to help. Preserve the original forecast for hindsight rather than overwrite it with the first actual result.

For the worked overshirt, the sequence is a Forge-informed product comparison, a ninety-unit initial forecast, 150-unit opening supply, 72 example sales and a 24-unit proposed next requirement. Keep these as distinct product, planning and trading records. No automatic Forge-to-Core hand-off, supplier commitment or stock movement is assumed.

Record the forecast error on a comparable exposure basis after each review. A launch forecast should not be judged as wrong solely because fewer stores opened on time or stock arrived late. Separate an assumption about customer demand from an operational constraint that prevented the forecast opportunity from being offered.

Common questions